Pay Intelligence October 2009: IRS annual review of pay trends and prospects

Pay prospects for 2009/10 | Annual review of pay trends | IRS pay databank
Performance pay in 2008/09 | Economic outlook | Pay bargaining calendar | Datafile
Bargaining statistics | About IRS pay analysis

On this page: Pay Intelligence brings together links to the latest pay settlement analysis and economic indicators from across the IRS and HR & Compliance Centre portfolio, providing everything you need to keep track of pay trends. 

Summary of key pay data:

IRS headline measure of pay settlements: 0% in the three months to 30 September 2009

Release date: 23 October 2009

Next release date: 20 November 2009

Summary: The median award for the three months to 30 September 2009 is down to a pay freeze, with the median for the past two rolling quarters revised down to the same level. 

This month's issue of Pay Intelligence provides a pay resource pack to help employers prepare for the year ahead. It includes a review of pay awards over the past year, a major survey of private sector employers on pay prospects for the coming year plus an analysis of the economic outlook for 2009/10. If you don't have time to read it all now, look at our slideshow of key points. 

Pay prospects for 2009/10:

• Pay prospects survey: employees forecast pay rises of 2% in 2010 Our exclusive survey of 192 private sector employers finds that they expect to award pay rises of a median 2% in the year ahead. However, almost one-third of employee groups may not get a pay rise next year. 
• Economic outlook 2009/10: growth may resume but uncertainty abounds As the end of the recession is tentatively predicted, we review the key economic indicators of interest to pay decision-makers. 

A review of pay trends over 2008/09:

• Annual review of pay trends 2009: pay freezes dominate We review pay awards over the past two years, exploring what has happened across the whole economy and by sector. We also present the findings of our monthly analysis of pay deals, finding that the median basic pay award across the economy is now a pay freeze. 
• Performance-pay awards hold up despite recession This article presents an analysis of performance-based pay awards over the 12 months to 31 August 2009, revealing that paybill budgets were set at a median 3.25% over that period. 
• Economic outlook 2009/10: growth may resume We outline the forecasts for economic growth, inflation, unemployment, earnings growth and other indicators over the coming year. 
• IRS pay databank: 23 October 2009 The full statistical breakdown of findings from the IRS pay databank, covering basic pay settlements collected by IRS in the year to 30 September 2009. IRS collects the details of around 1,400 pay settlements every year. 
• The annual pay bargaining calendar We explain at what time of year pay awards are settled. 

Essential pay resources and statistics:

• Datafile: 23 October 2009 The twice-monthly datafile contains:
  • The latest inflation and earnings statistics
  • Pay settlement statistics from IRS and other pay commentators
  • Inflation and earnings forecasts from IRS and the Treasury
• Bargaining statistics: 23 October 2009 A summary of bargaining statistics for pay negotiators, including the official figures on inflation, earnings and the labour market, as well as settlement statistics from the main pay analysts. 
• About IRS pay analysis Read about how IRS collects, records and analyses pay data. 
• Add your organisation's pay award to the IRS database Submit details of your organisation's latest pay review in return for a copy of our most up-to-date analysis of pay trends. 

Also

Pay Intelligence archive Access previous editions of IRS Pay Intelligence. 

Pay review update archive Run this saved search to access the complete archive of IRS pay review update articles on HR & Compliance Centre, presenting summaries of some of the pay settlements from the IRS pay databank. 

Datafile archive Run this saved search to access the complete archive of IRS datafile articles on HR & Compliance Centre, presenting summaries of pay settlement statistics from IRS and other pay commentators, plus inflation and earnings forecasts collected by IRS. 

Economic indicators HR & Compliance Centre allows you to browse all the latest economic and labour market statistics, such as inflation, earnings, unemployment and working hours. 

Official figures Pay specialists at IRS and HR & Compliance Centre present their in-depth analysis of the 2008 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) from the Office for National Statistics, which provides the most comprehensive and precise available snapshot of UK earnings data.