UK labour market outlook uncertain post budget

The UK's labour market outlook is uncertain following October's budget announcement, data from Indeed has indicated.

While the economy overall outperformed this year's low expectations, job postings dropped by 24% in 2024, which could lead into next year, warned the global recruitment platform.

Its 2025 Jobs & Hiring Trends Report showed the UK's decline in new listings on its site in the past year is the largest compared to countries such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the US.

Additionally, with the imminent rise in national minimum wage rates and business rates, as well as increase in employer national insurance contributions and lowering of the threshold, Indeed believes companies will be cautious with recruitment decisions next year.

Fewer job postings

UK's job postings fell across most occupational categories, with the biggest drop noted in the veterinary, electrical engineering, and security and public safety sectors. The legal sector was the only one of the 48 tracked that experienced an increase in postings.

Weaknesses were also apparent in categories offering the most remote working opportunities, particularly in technology roles, as well as some professional categories.

Dip in pay and bonuses

The data also highlighted a reduction in the share of postings which mentioned a signing bonus, from a high of 2.1% in February 2023 to 1.0% in October 2024.

In terms of pay in postings, the Indeed Wage Tracker found that despite a slight dip from its 7% high in June, the latest figures showed it stood at 6.7%.

A sizeable wage gap remained between lower and higher-paid roles, growing by 7.6% year-on-year versus 6.0% respectively.

Zero-hours contracts increase 

Indeed found that, the mention of zero-hours contracts rose in job postings despite government plans to restrict them, increasing from 1.1% in April 2022 to 1.9% in October.

The research showed that these contracts are commonly found in low-paid roles, particularly in the sports category, followed by personal care and home health, as well as in hospitality and tourism.

Greater pay transparency 

According to the report findings, pay transparency in UK job postings has increased in the past five years, with nearly three in four (72%) including some salary information in October, compared to less than 50% before the pandemic.

Indeed suggests employers may now be more mindful of the benefits brought by pay transparency, including talent attraction and efficiencies in recruitment gained by matching salary expectations at an early stage.

Remote and hybrid work remains high

In terms of remote or hybrid work, the study showed this is still fairly high at 14.6% despite the return to office push. Although this is down from 16.3% in May, it remains well above the 3% widely noted pre-pandemic.

The research found even employers that require in-person staff attendance are offering flexibility, with vetinary, childcare, education and instruction among those with the biggest shares of four-day week job postings.

Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Indeed, commented: "The UK economy performed better than expected in 2024, but this doesn't mean 2025 will be smooth-sailing.

"Much of this will come down to the health of the labour market and with the impact of policy changes announced in the budget yet to be seen, it's likely the best case scenario for many businesses will be sluggish job creation.

"For workers, the combination of a hike in employer National Insurance contributions and a likely soft labour market, mean their pay packets could be impacted.

"As it has been for the last few years, the ability to attract the best talent lies in being competitive on pay and benefits, such as flexible and remote working.

"That said, the evidence of a fall in job postings, a decline in signing bonuses and easing wage growth means the power is shifting back to employers as the labour market cools, which will certainly influence how candidates approach interviews and negotiations in the new year."