In the face of a tight labour market and record high inflation, pay settlements have risen to their highest levels for 30 years. But with inflation easing and the economy faltering, we look at likely pay rises over the coming 12 months.
The median pay increase across the manufacturing-and-production sector has almost doubled over the past 12 months, but employers are concerned about how long they can maintain these higher pay awards.
Pay awards in the not-for-profit sector increased in value in the 12 months to the end of August 2022, compared with the previous year. However, they continue to trail behind the whole-economy median and fall significantly below current rates of inflation.
Across private-sector-services firms, pay awards are in line with the whole economy but some industries have performed better and are delivering higher increases to employees.
The end of the pay pause in the public sector sees a notable uplift in pay settlement levels, but they fail to accelerate as much as in the private sector.
The XpertHR headline level of pay awards remains unchanged for a fifth consecutive rolling quarter, as attention starts to turn to the challenge of the coming pay round.
After an unprecedented rise in the level of pay awards over the past year, we review the trends in both basic pay awards and those based on a measure of performance.