The pay award landscape continues to evolve as more 2026 deals are agreed. At the midpoint of the year, the median pay settlement stands at 3.2%, while a first look at predictions for 2027 indicate there may be a small downward shift next year.
For the first time this year, the median basic pay award has returned to 3% - the pay rise level that was predicted in the Brightmine pay forecasts 2026 survey and the median level recorded for 2025.
The UK median pay award for the three months to February 2026 edged up slightly to 3.3%, although this level of pay growth is not expected to be sustained across the year.
The first pay awards of 2026 have shown some growth compared with 2025, but is this new year boost likely to last the year? We look in detail at organisations' pay award plans for the coming 12 months.
After a short-lived lift from public-sector pay deals in the autumn, the UK's median basic pay award has settled back to 3%, confirming 2025 as a year of flatter, more subdued pay growth than 2024.
After holding steady at 3% for much of 2025, the UK's median basic pay award edged up to 3.3% in the latest quarter - lifted by a wave of public-sector settlements. As employers await clarity from the Autumn Budget and a potential Bank of England interest rate cut, confidence in pay-setting remains cautious but steady.
Pay awards have now held at 3% for much of 2025 - the new normal for UK pay settlements. The latest Brightmine analysis confirms another period of steady outcomes and limited change across sectors.